Inca odata despre nori. Pentru tonti

UPDATED Eu chiar am crezut in povestea asta cu norul vulcanic. Am avut doua binocluri pregatite, plus un aparat foto cu teleobiectiv. N-am vrut sa ratez momentul. Si am asteptat. Si am asteptat iar . Si nimic. Cer senin, soare. Pe radarele INMH, la fel, nada.

Pe siteul Realitatea, se sustine:

“În ultimele 12 ore norul de cenuşă vulcanică a coborât cu 3.000 de metri altitudine. Potrivit doctorului în fizică, Doina Nicolae, nu este exclus să coboare şi  mai mult, dar este puţin probabil întrucât există un strat protector de nor de ploaie, cel puţin deasupra Bucureştiului. Ea susţine că în actualele condiţii de umiditate stratul protector de nor nu poate dispărea.

“Norul de cenuşă vulcanică a coborât cu baza până la 2 km şi jumătate altitudine şi se subţiază pe măsură ce trece timpul” a explicat Doina Nicolae.

Ea susţine însă că nu ar trebui să ne îngrijorăm întrucât stratul protector de nori de ploaie se află la altitudinea de 1 km şi jumătate şi împiedică efectele norului de cenuşă să se simtă la sol.”

Eu nu pot sa contrazic un doctor, mai ales in fizica. Cu astia nu te pui.

Dar pot sa spun niste chestii de bun simt.

Mai oameni buni, azi peste Bucuresti n-au fost nori vulcanici sau de ploaie, au fost doar cumulusi. Nori de vreme buna, “nori de vata”.

Adica de-astia (apar la pranz si dispar spre seara):

Deci norul vulcanic precum si “stratul protector de nor de ploaie” sunt doar in mintea doamnei (doctor in fizica) Nicolae. Chiar am tampit cu totii?

Din fericire Radu Berceanu a spus-o pe bune:

“Norul de cenuşă e doar praf. Noi suntem antrenaţi”

UPDATE Aurora Bell director de prognoza la ANM: “Norul se vede in zona vulcanului, dar odata ce este raspandit de curenti deasupra Europei, el devine invizibil pentru ochiul liber. (…) Ploile vor curata ceea ce deja nu este periculos”.

Stiti ce-nseamna asta, nu? ANM-ul doar banuieste ca norul e deasupra Romaniei (au calculat evolutia in atmosfera a curentilor de aer dinspre Islanda). Dar nu stie. Ca sa stii trebuie sa faci masuratori in aer, la diferite altitudini. Ei au facut  (L.E. probabil) doar la nivelul solului.

UPDATE 2 Cei de la Institutul Naţional de Cercetare-Dezvoltare pentru Optoelectronica (unde probabil lucreaza si doamna Doina Nicolae) au intr-adevar o instalatie de teledetectie cu laser (LIDAR)  cu care se pot efectua de la sol masuratori in atmosfera.

Cu toate ca finlandezii au tehnica extrem de performanta in acest domeniu (produsa de compania finlandeza Vaisala), acum cateva zile fortele lor aeriene au trimis un avion Hawk pentru a lua probe in aer:

“Despite the particle cloud, an Air Force Hawk training jet, equipped with a pod conceived to take samples, is ready the period the airspace will remain closed. The aircraft will fly anywhere on request of the civilian authorities.

On the basis of the information gathered by the aircraft, we will be able to determine how much smoke particles are in the air. The results will be forwarded to the civilian authorities, which will make out of the results of the gathered knowledge their decision as for the use of the Finnish airspace refers.

The reconnaissance aircraft will fly at a defined altitude and will gather in a filter the particles it will cross. After the landing of the aircraft, the samples are sent to the National Defence Research Centre in Lakiala. To get the results we need about two hours, which are then sent to Finavia. When deemed necessary pilots will report in real time their direct observations. The observation aircraft is operated by people from Kauhava Air Force school.”

In concluzie:

1. Norul ar putea fi deasupra Romaniei. (Pana nu se iau probe din aer nu se stie).

2. Norul ar putea avea efecte nefaste asupra motoarelor avioanelor. L.E. Inca este testat efectul particulelor asupra motoarelor. Doua Cinci aparate F/A 18 finlandeze au zburat in “norul” vulcanic acum cateva zile si apoi motoarele le-au fost investigate cu camere video cu fibra optica. S-au constat depuneri de particule in camera de combustie si in prizele de aer.

“Melting ashes accumulate in the cooler engine exhaust and provoke overheating of some parts and weaken some metal. Weakened metal generates for the rotating parts of the engine the danger of cracks. In extreme cases some parts could break and destroy the engine.The Hornets exposed to the ashes are scrutinized carefully. In any case some engine parts will be replaced and running tests will be conducted at he Patria workshops. Damages parts are to be taken down as far as deemed necessary in thee engines, in which we would observe anomalies because of the smoke particles. This will apply for instance if particles are detected in the exhaust.”

L.E

Cum arata depunerile de particule in motoarele aparatelor F/A 18 finlandeze (FlightGlobal):

“The images show that short-term flying can cause substantial damage to an aircraft engine,” the air force says. Continued operation could lead to overheating and potentially pose a threat to the aircraft and its pilot, it adds.

Checks will soon be made on the other four aircraft involved, and some engines will be removed to help Finnish company Patria – which provides in-service support for the nation’s F-18 fleet – to assess the extent of any damage caused. Its fleet comprises 55 single-seat F-18Cs and seven two-seat trainers, with each powered by two General Electric F404-402 engines.

Finland halted air force training flights yesterday, but the air force will continue to perform operational sorties as required, such as air policing missions and national security tasks.”

Pe de alta parte British Airways a efectuat un zbor test si nu s-au inregistrat probleme:

“Detailed analysis of the engines on the British Airways Boeing 747 used in a test flight through the European volcanic cloud has indicated no deterioration in performance.

Engine manufacturer Rolls-Royce monitored the RB211 powerplants in real time, from the ground, during yesterday’s 2hr 46min flight between London Heathrow and Cardiff.

Technicians conducted a borescope inspection of the engines after the flight. “All these checks showed no deterioration from that previously recorded at London Heathrow,” says BA.

Rolls-Royce is to analyse the engine oil and fuel filters from the aircraft.

BA says that information from the flight recorders indicates that all four RB211s performed “without fault for the duration of the flight” and without any degradation of performance.

One of its BAE Systems Hawk jet trainers also flew from Kauhava air base twice yesterday carrying an air sampling pod which collected dust from the atmosphere at various altitudes.”

Aviatia militara franceza a efectuat un zbor cu doua Alpha Jet si de asemenea, n-au fost probleme:

“Deux Alpha-Jets ont décollé à partir de Tours et de Dijon. Ils ont volé dans des secteurs où la densité de poussière était estimée très faible. Au retour, l’examen de leurs moteurs ne semble pas avoir permis de déceler de dégâts.”

Logica tip “ar putea” e imposibil de contrazis .

Intr-adevar, prostia ar putea sa doara.

UPDATE 3

UPDATE 4 Ultimele imagini live cu vulcanul (azi 20 aprilie) nu indica o intensificare a eruptiei (decat a celei de prostie in mass-media ):

UPDATE 5 AFP a anuntat de cateva ore, citand specialisti islandezi ca nu exista nicio intensificare a eruptiei. CNN, BBC si Reuters sustin ca exista un nou nor. Britanicii (primii care si-au inchis spatiul aerian) isi mentin interdictiile de zbor in cea mai mare parte.

“En Islande, aucun signe d’intensification de l’activité du volcan Eyjafjöll n’a été enregistré mardi et le panache de cendre paralysant le trafic aérien européen a nettement diminué, a assuré à l’AFP une géophysicienne de l’Université d’Islande à Reykjavik, Sigrun Hreinsdottir.

Elle s’est dite “vraiment surprise” des déclarations des autorités aéronautiques britanniques (Nats) lundi soir selon lesquelles l’éruption s’intensifiait et un nouveau nuage de cendres se dirigeait vers les îles britanniques.

La météorologue Gudrun Nina Petersen, de l’Office météorologique islandais, a assuré que le volcan crachait moins de cendres. “Si des cendres ont été détectées au-dessus de l’Angleterre (la nuit dernière), ce sont des cendres qui ont été rejetées 24 heures plus tôt”.”